Box Office

The Friday box office results for August 1, 2008 are in, and it’s going to be a close one for box office crown. We have two films vying for first place this weekend: The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor, the unwanted sequel starring Brenden Fraser, and the very-much-wanted sequel and box office behemoth The Dark Knight.

The Mummy 3 won the Friday battle, raking in $15.5 million, but it may not win the war. The Dark Knight dropped 45% from last weekend – still pretty damn good for a blockbuster of its size – to add another $12.8 million to its cume. Nevertheless, those smart analysts over at  Box Office Prophets except, with some uncertainty, that the Batman movie may come out on top when final box office numbers are counted. For starters, The Mummy 3 may be a little bit frontloaded – whereas The Dark Knight has proven that people want to see it consistently any day of the week. At the very least, if it comes down to the wire, I could see Universal hedging the numbers a bit so that when the weekend box office estimates come out, The Mummy 3 is sitting on top.

Irregardless, this is a win for Universal. After the disaster that was The Mummy 2 (granted, it made a ton of money), Universal has to be pleased with a $40+ million opening weekend. While it didn’t look as bad as The Mummy Returns, the presence of yetis and poorly designed dragons – as well as God-awful reviews – had the average moviegoer thinking that this was a down-and-out release. I had pretty much forgotten that this was part of a very successful movie franchise, and that it’s still summer – a good amount of money can still be made.

As for The Dark Knight, the good news is that by the end of the weekend it will be closing in on $400 million, the fastest movie to do so. The bad news is that now, it is looking less and less likely that it will knock Titanic off its throne.

Kevin Costner’s Swing Vote, by the way, flopped with only $1.9 million on Friday, begging for a $5-6 million weekend. I feel bad for Costner, as I really want him to get a hit one of these days. That being said, it was clear from the beginning that Swing Vote was not going to be that comeback he so desperately needs.

Going into last week, I had a very strategic, three-touch plan to seeing The Dark Knight. I would see it opening night, at midnight, with all the freaks and geeks. I would then see it a few days later with my parents. I would then see it a third time on IMAX, as I’ve never seen a “real” movie on IMAX before.

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The Friday box office estimates are in for the June 27-29 weekend, giving us a hint of what the final box office numbers will be. Many box office analysts expected both the family-friendly Wall-E and the R-rated action movie Wanted to do well, but the box office weekend is shaping up to a be a bigger one than first expected.

Wall-E, which was expected to be the big winner of the weekend, took in $23.3 million on Friday alone, shaping up for approximately $67 million over the three-day span. That’s just shy of Pixar’s record with The Incredibles, which took in a little over $70 million a few years ago. It’s also a lot higher than what the excellent Ratatouille opened to last year.

Wanted, which stars Angelina Jolie and James McAvoy, took in a whopping $18.7 million on Friday, which should lead to a much higher than expected $53 million weekend. Wanted will be the biggest June R-rated opening ever, knocking off Knocked Up‘s $30.6 million.

Get Smart and The Love Guru open this weekend in a rare big comedy vs. big comedy battle. Of course, it’s not going to be much of a battle.

In one corner, we have Steve Carell’s Get Smart, which has looked funny from the first preview of Carell stuck in a phone booth. In the other corner, the absolutely God-awful looking The Love Guru, which stars Mike Myers retreading what he’s already done before – only much, much worse (read the Love Guru movie review).

Despite last year’s disaster Evan Almighty, Carell is in the prime of his career. With The Office and The 40-Year Old Virgin still fresh on people’s minds, not to mention the great Get Smart previews, I expect big things for this movie. As for The Love Guru… I am expecting Little Nicky type numbers, only maybe not that bad.

Neither film has received very good reviews, but Get Smart should handily win the weekend. I’m not a box office expert, and in fact I rarely make box office predictions, but I’ve been seeing box office predictions for Get Smart between the $40 and $50 million mark. For The Love Guru, anywhere from $20 to $35 million.

Now, I’m not generally one to oppose weekend box office estimates, but I’m a little surprised by these numbers. I believe Get Smart is going to make close to $60 million, and The Love Guru less than $20. Yes, I think Get Smart is going to do that well at the box office, and The Love Guru that pitiful. I will be disappointed if The Love Guru makes more than that.

Yesterday, box office predictions had Kung Fu Panda expected to make in the low-to-mid fifties and You Don’t Mess With the Zohan making around $32 million. Those weekend box office predictions were way off.

The Jack Black family film Kung Fu Panda, the first big animated movie of the year, earned $20.3 million on Friday according to Box Office Prophets, which means that the DreamWorks picture is expected to make approximately $65 million over the course of the weekend. Aside from the Shrek movies, this is DreamWork’s biggest animated opening ever.

As for Adam Sandler, who didn’t suffer either. Most analysts had his movie pegged at making $15-20 million less than the more family-friendly fare opening this weekend, and they were right. However, You Don’t Mess with the Zohan, where Sandler plays a former Israeli counter terrorist who moves to New York to fulfill his dream of cutting hair only to be pursued by his former enemies, earned $15.2 million on Friday, which should lead to a $41 million opening. Those who were questioning whether Sandler’s time was fading after the disappointing Chuck and Larry were… wrong.

From the numbers I pulled yesterday, Entertainment Weekly was closest to estimating Panda‘s numbers, as it had predicted $60 million in box office receipts. They were the second worst at predicting Zohan‘s numbers, however. Box Office Report came closest to predicting Zohan‘s numbers with a $38 million box office estimate.

Two big films open this weekend, both looking at diametrically different audiences. In one corner, we have You Don’t Mess with the Zohan, the Adam Sandler comedy almost guaranteed to capture a good chunk of the lucrative teenage fan base, and in the other, Kung Fu Panda, the first major animated film of the year. It’s Sandler versus Jack Black, gross-out vs. PG, old versus new.

Neither film looks particularly good. Kung Fu Panda seems like a lot of special effects without much substance, as the previews fail to suggest that there’s much of a story or comedy to be found. Seriously, the previews aren’t funny at all, and if I want to watch Kung Fu, I’ll watch Bruce Lee. As for Zohan, I always hold out hope that Adam Sandler can deliver something entertaining – and there are some funny moments in the previews – but after I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry turned out to be pretty terrible, I am hesitant.

Needless to say, neither film inspires much love from me, and unless I want to see Sex and the City this weekend, this may be a good couple of days to relax and enjoy the warm weather. Unfortunately, I live in Seattle, where it’s in the 50′s and raining.

On to the weekend box office predictions for the movie. I’m no box office expert, so I’ll leave the analysis to all the so-called box office experts floating around on the Internet. May was a tough month for box office analysts, though you can hardly blame them. Who would have thought Iron Man would open to $100 million? That Prince Caspian would so under-deliver? That Sex and the City would dominate so mightily? That The Strangers would actually do well? Anyway, here are the weekend box office predictions for the June 6 – 8 weekend:

• Blog Critics Magazine estimates $48 million for Panda and $34 million for Zohan.
• Digressions with Mark the Movie Guy estimates $55 million for Panda and $30-32 million for Zohan
• Box Office Prophets estimates $57 million for Panda and $30 million for Zohan
• Box Office Report shows $52 million for Panda and $38 million for Zohan
• Box Office Psychics has Panda at $45 million and Zohan at $37 million
• Rotten Tomatoes says Panda will earn $52 million versus Zohan‘s $35 million
• EW.com has Panda making a whopping $60 million against Zohan‘s $32 million
• Box Office Guru puts Panda at $52 million and Zohan at $35 million

So, it looks like Adam Sandler really doesn’t stand a chance, which is not really too surprising. Kung Fu Panda appeals to the masses; You Don’t Mess with the Zohan will appeal to Sandler fans. It’ll be interesting to see how Panda actually does, though, as there are bound to be some more box office disappointments over the course of the summer.

View more new releases this weekend…

Sex and the City comes to theaters this weekend, and I have to imagine that box office pundits are nervous about making predictions for this one. It’s a highly anticipated film – among women. In fact, it’s one of the rare female-targeted films that is opening to midnight screenings. A movie theater near me is selling $90 tickets for a three-course meal, Cosmos and a ticket. Sex and the City: The Movie is an event by any stretch of the imagination.

Then again, it’s still a movie aimed toward women. What does that mean for box office dollars? $30 million? $40 million? $60 million? Higher?

Here are some predictions:

• $45 million from Movie Reviews by Wes
• $35 million  from Fantasy Moguls (this is a great, in-depth analysis, by the way)
• ??? from The Cairns Blog
• $45 million from Beukey on Pop Culture
• $53 million from Box Office Report

In general, it sounds like $30-35 million is the average most “experts” are predicting, and if so, that will be a great feat for a film like Sex and the City, which stars a bunch of “older” women. That being said, don’t you think an event film like this will be considered just a slight disappointment if it comes in second to Indiana Jones? Indiana Jones will fall hard this weekend, but falling from $100 million still means a lot of money.

Vindication is wonderful. Speed Racer, the awful-looking action-racing film from the Wachowski brothers, is the first flop of the summer season as it took in only $6.1 million according to Friday box office estimates. According to Box Office Prophets, the movie will take in approximately $20-$21 million over the weekend. No matter how you cut it, a movie that costs between $100-$120 million is expected to open to more than $20 million in its opening weekend, and I would expect a huge 60% drop next weekend. After all, with Chronicles of Narnia and Indiana Jones coming over the next 13 days, Speed Racer will have no place to breath.

This made my weekend.

Beyond Speed Racer, Iron Man will once again win the weekend with just under $40 million, though I’m surprised the hit action film didn’t do better in its second weekend. As good as it is, I was expecting some people to return to theaters this weekend – or for holdouts to be lured in by quality reviews – but $40 million, following a $100 million opening weekend, implies that isn’t the case. Still, no one’s complaining.

What Happens in Vegas earned $7.1 million on Friday, good for a $20 million opening. That’s pretty good for the Ashton Kutcher/Cameron Diaz comedy.

Iron Man, the Robert Downey, Jr.-starring action movie, made $32 million on Friday, May 2nd to conquer the weekend, according to Box Office Mojo. Since it’s 8pm opening on Thursday, the movie has made $38 million, meaning it that it is going to make a ton of money by the time Sunday closes.

Read my Iron Man movie review here.

Made of Honor, the only other major release this weekend, came in second, earning $5.4 million on Friday. I guess counter-programming paid off in this case.

Based on Friday box office estimates, Baby Mama, the Tina Fey/Amy Poehler comedy, declared victory over the stoner sequel Harold and Kumar Escape from Guantanamo Bay.

Baby Mama earned $6.28 million on Friday compared to Harold and Kumar‘s $5.7; while I’m no box office expert, given the kind of comedies each of those films are, that is probably enough of a gap to keep Baby Mama the winner through the weekend.

I’m not too surprised, as Baby Mama plays to a more general audience, whereas Harold and Kumar targets a younger crowd. Baby Mama didn’t look all too good to me, but, then again, Tina Fey pulled off Mean Girls so anything can happen. As for me, I went to a sold-out showing of Harold and Kumar last night – you can read my movie review here.

Forgetting Sarah Marshall came in third with $3.4 million, while newcomer Deception, which most people haven’t heard of despite starring Ewan McGregor and Hugh Jackman, earned a paltry $760,000.

These numbers come from BoxOfficeMojo.com.

Expelled: No Intelligence Allowed unfortunately didn’t completely flop over the weekend, as the documentary earned $1.2 million on Friday for an estimated weekend box office gross of $3.7 million (according to Box Office Prophets).

Why did I want Expelled to flop? The Ben Stein documentary is apparently about allowing the teaching of intelligent design (i.e. creationism) into schools. I haven’t seen the movie, so I hate that I’m jumping to conclusions the way that religious groups jump on films they think they might find distasteful, but so goes it. If the movie is about free speech and whether creationism should be allowed in public schools on those grounds is one thing, the marketing seems to be catering to the religious group, which makes me think otherwise.

I’m sorry, but evolution is only a theory because it hasn’t been completely proven – it is not a theory because there are glaring holes in it. I’ve had discussions with otherwise intelligent people who claim that evolution isn’t real, but it is the most common sense, obvious thing when you think about it. If I had kids, there would be no way I would allow my children to learn that it’s a possibility that we just popped into existence one day in our current form. It’s just prepostrous.

At the same time, I would encourage them to have an intelligent debate about one versus the other, but that’s not what we’re talking about here. We’re talking about teaching creationism in schools. The only reason creationism has been renamed “intelligent design” is to make it sound like it is halfway intelligent.

In other Friday box office news, Forbidden Kingdom will steal the weekend with an estimated $20 million, the best ever opening for Jet Li and the best non-Rush Hour opening for Jackie Chan. Forgetting Sarah Marshall, which I saw last night, will make approximately $16 million. 88 Minutes died on arrival, and will earn about $6 million.

I’m not a box office analyst or a box office expert, but I know surprises when I see them. While this weekend’s box office, spanning April 4, 2008 to April 6, 2008, is probably not worth the time it takes to write this piece, I was surprised from the results and figured I’d share them with you.

1. Leatherheads only made $13.5 million to take the #2 spot. While it is a period piece, it is a period piece about football with a great cast and a funny trailer. I figured this one was a lock for the number one spot, and at least $20 million. The very fact that it didn’t make much money makes me shake my head in shame… of course, I didn’t help it out by not seeing it this weekend.
2. 21 rules the box office for the second straight weekend. Who saw that one coming? The movie was enough of a surprise last weekend when it made $24 million; this week, it only dropped 37% to earn $15.1 million. Clearly, critics and audiences are not seeing eye-to-eye on this one, as it has a pretty dismal rotten rating at Rotten Tomatoes but is still drawing in sizable audiences. Having just seen the film yesterday, I can understand its appeal: it’s flashy, entertaining and stars Kevin Spacey. I’m really not that surprised that 21 is doing well; I’m just surprised that it’s doing THIS well.
3. Nim’s Island makes only $13.3 million. With Friday’s numbers, box office analysts were predicting that the movie might take the #2 spot, but according to estimates, that is not to be. The kid’s movie, full of adventure and Jodie Foster, seemed poised to make a splash this weekend, but that didn’t happen. Why? I’m not so sure. Horton Hears a Who! continues to do strongly, so maybe that film pulled some business away – but that one’s been out for weeks and there isn’t any other kid movies to serve as competition.
4. The Ruins flops with only $7.8 million. Horror movies are always hard to predict, and it seems almost by chance that one breaks out while another fails to deliver. Over the last couple years, I have been especially surprised when crappy-looking horror films make bank while others with truly superior trailers and marketing do not. Personally, The Ruins looked rather stupid, but with a slightly more recognizable cast and stronger production values, I thought this one had some potential. I guess not.
5. Superhero Movie, in its second weekend, falls only 43% to $5.4 million. Thankfully, the movie flopped in its first weekend, but this piece-of-crap has already earned almost $17 million. I was hoping for a 65% drop and a Superman-like disappearance.

Have you ever gone to a movie theater by yourself? I don’t know about you, but I feel a bit like a loser when I do. Very rarely will I go by myself, but I know what I think when I see some guy show up with his popcorn, sit down at the end of the row, and remain there for two-plus hours with no one to keep him company… I think, “That poor, pathetic bastard.”

And then I go and watch a movie by myself. I typically only do this once a year, when I am so craved to see a movie that I will pay my money when no one else will. Given that it’s early April and I have to choose between crap and more crap, it’s not surprising that none of my friends want to go see anything (and my family never called me back). Still, I’m pretty ashamed to go by myself. Today, I went to the theater to buy a ticket for 21, the gambling movie starring Jim Sturgess, Kevin Spacey and Kate Bosworth. My plan was to buy the ticket at the machine, quickly hand the ticket to the ticket-tearing dude (while pretending to be on my cell phone as if I were meeting someone inside) and grab a seat near the back. Instead, the credit card machine failed, so I had to go buy a ticket from an actual person. I then got thirsty, so I sidetracked to the concession stand where I bought a small, $4.00 soda (from a young kid who asked me with no sincerity whatsoever whether I would like to purchase a combo, or get more unhealthy liquid for only 50 cents more, and so on and so forth). I did the cell phone bit to get past the ticket taker, but when I got in the theater there were just enough people for it to make more sense for me to sit closer to the screen than farther back.

Everyone is looking at me, thinking, “That poor, sad, lonely bastard.” God, if only I had a girlfriend I’d drag her along to these things (then again, if I had a girlfriend, I wouldn’t be writing this stupid blog post at 8:45pm on a Saturday night).

Anyway, long story short, I watched 21, and it was pretty good. Not great, but pretty good.  I now have two 21 movie reviews online, one by myself and one by Robert Bell. We pretty much agree, but you can read them both and see who is the better writer (my take is that he is far superior).

In other news, it looks like 21 will win the box office weekend for a second straight week, as Leatherheads got tackled in the end zone and is headed for a third place finish behind Nim’s Island. 21 will make approximately $15 million in its second weekend, and certainly a big win for Sony.

The surprise of the weekend is that the Will Ferrell comedy Semi-Pro flopped in theaters this weekend. With a lack of competition, the basketball film still made it into the #1 spot, but will end up with $15-$20 million less than other comparable Will Ferrell movies.

Semi-Pro made only $5.4 million at the Friday box office, compared to the $12.3 million Blades of Glory earned last year. That means that, according to Box Office Prophets, Semi-Pro will end up with about $15 million for the weekend, compared to Blades of Glory‘s $33 million. Ouch.

Honestly, I’m pretty surprised. Semi-Pro looked pretty funny, and had great previews to draw people in. Reviews were surprisingly decent, too; at least more than good enough for a Will Ferrell movie. The Superbowl ads alone were worth the price of admission, so I’m amazed this one didn’t appeal to people more. Is Ferrell’s star power fading? People might be getting tired of the same old formula over and over again, but, then again, I wouldn’t rule the ex-SNL star out yet. This may just be one of those weird flukes.

The Other Boleyn Girl, starring Scarlett Johansson and Natalie Portman as two scheming sisters trying to produce a male heir for King Henry VIII, will earn approximately $8.1 million this weekend, not bad considering that the movie is a period piece and only opened on 1,166 theater. Penelope, about a pig-faced Christina Ricci, earned $1 million on weekend, which means it’s pretty much dead on arrival. Considering I have yet to see a preview for the film, I’m not surprised.

No Country for Old Men also earned a million dollars as it pushed back up to 2,000 screens, riding it’s post Best Picture Oscar win. I would have contributed to that amount had I not received it on DVD last night.

The Friday box office results for the February 15-17 weekend (or for the February 14 to February 18 Valentine’s Day to President’s Day weekend) are here, and they imply a pretty impressive turnout for several new and returning films.

The Hayden Christensen-starring sci-fi thriller Jumper benefited from a lack of action films and a slick-looking premise to win Friday, after finishing in a “near dead heat” with Step Up 2 the Streets on Thursday. Jumper earned $8.2 million on Friday, bringing its two-day cume to $14.84.

Step Up 2 the Streets earned $6.25 million, The Spiderwick Chronicles $4.75 million and Definitely, Maybe only $2.9 million, for a disappointing fifth place finish. On the other hand, last week’s winner Fool’s Gold earned $3.9 million.

Here are the five day predications from Slashfilm:

1. Jumper (Fox) – $34.47M
2. Step Up 2 the Streets (Disney) – $28.45M
3. The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount) – $25.35M
4. Fool’s Gold (Warner Bros) -$18.75M
5. Definitely Maybe (Universal) – $14.4M
6. Welcome Back, Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) – $11.29M
7. Juno (Fox Searchlight) – $5.56M
8. The Bucket List (Warner Bros) – $4.99M
9. Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds (Disney) – $4.58M
10. 27 Dresses (Fox) – $4.19M