Going into last week, I had a very strategic, three-touch plan to seeing The Dark Knight. I would see it opening night, at midnight, with all the freaks and geeks. I would then see it a few days later with my parents. I would then see it a third time on IMAX, as I’ve never seen a “real” movie on IMAX before.
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The Friday box office estimates are in for the June 27-29 weekend, giving us a hint of what the final box office numbers will be. Many box office analysts expected both the family-friendly Wall-E and the R-rated action movie Wanted to do well, but the box office weekend is shaping up to a be a bigger one than first expected.
Wall-E, which was expected to be the big winner of the weekend, took in $23.3 million on Friday alone, shaping up for approximately $67 million over the three-day span. That’s just shy of Pixar’s record with The Incredibles, which took in a little over $70 million a few years ago. It’s also a lot higher than what the excellent Ratatouille opened to last year.
Wanted, which stars Angelina Jolie and James McAvoy, took in a whopping $18.7 million on Friday, which should lead to a much higher than expected $53 million weekend. Wanted will be the biggest June R-rated opening ever, knocking off Knocked Up‘s $30.6 million.
Yesterday, box office predictions had Kung Fu Panda expected to make in the low-to-mid fifties and You Don’t Mess With the Zohan making around $32 million. Those weekend box office predictions were way off.
The Jack Black family film Kung Fu Panda, the first big animated movie of the year, earned $20.3 million on Friday according to Box Office Prophets, which means that the DreamWorks picture is expected to make approximately $65 million over the course of the weekend. Aside from the Shrek movies, this is DreamWork’s biggest animated opening ever.
As for Adam Sandler, who didn’t suffer either. Most analysts had his movie pegged at making $15-20 million less than the more family-friendly fare opening this weekend, and they were right. However, You Don’t Mess with the Zohan, where Sandler plays a former Israeli counter terrorist who moves to New York to fulfill his dream of cutting hair only to be pursued by his former enemies, earned $15.2 million on Friday, which should lead to a $41 million opening. Those who were questioning whether Sandler’s time was fading after the disappointing Chuck and Larry were… wrong.
From the numbers I pulled yesterday, Entertainment Weekly was closest to estimating Panda‘s numbers, as it had predicted $60 million in box office receipts. They were the second worst at predicting Zohan‘s numbers, however. Box Office Report came closest to predicting Zohan‘s numbers with a $38 million box office estimate.
Two big films open this weekend, both looking at diametrically different audiences. In one corner, we have You Don’t Mess with the Zohan, the Adam Sandler comedy almost guaranteed to capture a good chunk of the lucrative teenage fan base, and in the other, Kung Fu Panda, the first major animated film of the year. It’s Sandler versus Jack Black, gross-out vs. PG, old versus new.
Neither film looks particularly good. Kung Fu Panda seems like a lot of special effects without much substance, as the previews fail to suggest that there’s much of a story or comedy to be found. Seriously, the previews aren’t funny at all, and if I want to watch Kung Fu, I’ll watch Bruce Lee. As for Zohan, I always hold out hope that Adam Sandler can deliver something entertaining – and there are some funny moments in the previews – but after I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry turned out to be pretty terrible, I am hesitant.
Needless to say, neither film inspires much love from me, and unless I want to see Sex and the City this weekend, this may be a good couple of days to relax and enjoy the warm weather. Unfortunately, I live in Seattle, where it’s in the 50′s and raining.
On to the weekend box office predictions for the movie. I’m no box office expert, so I’ll leave the analysis to all the so-called box office experts floating around on the Internet. May was a tough month for box office analysts, though you can hardly blame them. Who would have thought Iron Man would open to $100 million? That Prince Caspian would so under-deliver? That Sex and the City would dominate so mightily? That The Strangers would actually do well? Anyway, here are the weekend box office predictions for the June 6 – 8 weekend:
So, it looks like Adam Sandler really doesn’t stand a chance, which is not really too surprising. Kung Fu Panda appeals to the masses; You Don’t Mess with the Zohan will appeal to Sandler fans. It’ll be interesting to see how Panda actually does, though, as there are bound to be some more box office disappointments over the course of the summer.
View more new releases this weekend…
Sex and the City comes to theaters this weekend, and I have to imagine that box office pundits are nervous about making predictions for this one. It’s a highly anticipated film – among women. In fact, it’s one of the rare female-targeted films that is opening to midnight screenings. A movie theater near me is selling $90 tickets for a three-course meal, Cosmos and a ticket. Sex and the City: The Movie is an event by any stretch of the imagination.
Then again, it’s still a movie aimed toward women. What does that mean for box office dollars? $30 million? $40 million? $60 million? Higher?
Here are some predictions:
In general, it sounds like $30-35 million is the average most “experts” are predicting, and if so, that will be a great feat for a film like Sex and the City, which stars a bunch of “older” women. That being said, don’t you think an event film like this will be considered just a slight disappointment if it comes in second to Indiana Jones? Indiana Jones will fall hard this weekend, but falling from $100 million still means a lot of money.
Vindication is wonderful. Speed Racer, the awful-looking action-racing film from the Wachowski brothers, is the first flop of the summer season as it took in only $6.1 million according to Friday box office estimates. According to Box Office Prophets, the movie will take in approximately $20-$21 million over the weekend. No matter how you cut it, a movie that costs between $100-$120 million is expected to open to more than $20 million in its opening weekend, and I would expect a huge 60% drop next weekend. After all, with Chronicles of Narnia and Indiana Jones coming over the next 13 days, Speed Racer will have no place to breath.
This made my weekend.
Beyond Speed Racer, Iron Man will once again win the weekend with just under $40 million, though I’m surprised the hit action film didn’t do better in its second weekend. As good as it is, I was expecting some people to return to theaters this weekend – or for holdouts to be lured in by quality reviews – but $40 million, following a $100 million opening weekend, implies that isn’t the case. Still, no one’s complaining.
What Happens in Vegas earned $7.1 million on Friday, good for a $20 million opening. That’s pretty good for the Ashton Kutcher/Cameron Diaz comedy.
Iron Man, the Robert Downey, Jr.-starring action movie, made $32 million on Friday, May 2nd to conquer the weekend, according to Box Office Mojo. Since it’s 8pm opening on Thursday, the movie has made $38 million, meaning it that it is going to make a ton of money by the time Sunday closes.
Read my Iron Man movie review here.
Made of Honor, the only other major release this weekend, came in second, earning $5.4 million on Friday. I guess counter-programming paid off in this case.
Based on Friday box office estimates, Baby Mama, the Tina Fey/Amy Poehler comedy, declared victory over the stoner sequel Harold and Kumar Escape from Guantanamo Bay.
Baby Mama earned $6.28 million on Friday compared to Harold and Kumar‘s $5.7; while I’m no box office expert, given the kind of comedies each of those films are, that is probably enough of a gap to keep Baby Mama the winner through the weekend.
I’m not too surprised, as Baby Mama plays to a more general audience, whereas Harold and Kumar targets a younger crowd. Baby Mama didn’t look all too good to me, but, then again, Tina Fey pulled off Mean Girls so anything can happen. As for me, I went to a sold-out showing of Harold and Kumar last night – you can read my movie review here.
Forgetting Sarah Marshall came in third with $3.4 million, while newcomer Deception, which most people haven’t heard of despite starring Ewan McGregor and Hugh Jackman, earned a paltry $760,000.
These numbers come from BoxOfficeMojo.com.
Expelled: No Intelligence Allowed unfortunately didn’t completely flop over the weekend, as the documentary earned $1.2 million on Friday for an estimated weekend box office gross of $3.7 million (according to Box Office Prophets).
Why did I want Expelled to flop? The Ben Stein documentary is apparently about allowing the teaching of intelligent design (i.e. creationism) into schools. I haven’t seen the movie, so I hate that I’m jumping to conclusions the way that religious groups jump on films they think they might find distasteful, but so goes it. If the movie is about free speech and whether creationism should be allowed in public schools on those grounds is one thing, the marketing seems to be catering to the religious group, which makes me think otherwise.
I’m sorry, but evolution is only a theory because it hasn’t been completely proven – it is not a theory because there are glaring holes in it. I’ve had discussions with otherwise intelligent people who claim that evolution isn’t real, but it is the most common sense, obvious thing when you think about it. If I had kids, there would be no way I would allow my children to learn that it’s a possibility that we just popped into existence one day in our current form. It’s just prepostrous.
At the same time, I would encourage them to have an intelligent debate about one versus the other, but that’s not what we’re talking about here. We’re talking about teaching creationism in schools. The only reason creationism has been renamed “intelligent design” is to make it sound like it is halfway intelligent.
In other Friday box office news, Forbidden Kingdom will steal the weekend with an estimated $20 million, the best ever opening for Jet Li and the best non-Rush Hour opening for Jackie Chan. Forgetting Sarah Marshall, which I saw last night, will make approximately $16 million. 88 Minutes died on arrival, and will earn about $6 million.
I’m sorry, but does Speed Racer look like one of the worst movies ever conceived to you? Every time I see a trailer or a commercial or an email or an article about the movie, I cringe. Those poor saps who work at the movie theaters where the commercials are playing on the overhead TVs day in and day out must be on the verge of suicide.
Speed Racer just looks dreadful. I’m no box office expert, and as such I’m not entirely good at predicting how well films will make, but I will be shocked if this film is profitable. I will be highly disappointed if the movie doesn’t flop miserably, though I am trying to not say “shocked” for that result as well. After all, the American public is an unpredictable bunch and can be duped into going to see some pretty bad movies – and I, among them, will certainly go see this picture just to see how God-awful it really is. Still, even with my hesitations that this movie could make some decent money, I will still be pretty surprised if there is a large group of people out there who are eagerly awaiting this film. The special effects look dreadful, the action no better than that from a cheap cartoon and the acting lackluster at best (despite featuring a talented cast).
I’m really starting to think that the Wachowski Brothers are one-hit wonders. The Matrix was phenomenal and trend-setting. The Matrix Reloaded, while overall pretty decent, wasn’t anything great. The Matrix Revolution was plain-out bad at times. And now Speed Racer???
Please tell me if you actually think Speed Racer looks good, and why? Without even seeing this movie I want it to flop so badly, and I have this tingling feeling in my gut that suggests it may actually do so.
The surprise of the weekend is that the Will Ferrell comedy Semi-Pro flopped in theaters this weekend. With a lack of competition, the basketball film still made it into the #1 spot, but will end up with $15-$20 million less than other comparable Will Ferrell movies.
Semi-Pro made only $5.4 million at the Friday box office, compared to the $12.3 million Blades of Glory earned last year. That means that, according to Box Office Prophets, Semi-Pro will end up with about $15 million for the weekend, compared to Blades of Glory‘s $33 million. Ouch.
Honestly, I’m pretty surprised. Semi-Pro looked pretty funny, and had great previews to draw people in. Reviews were surprisingly decent, too; at least more than good enough for a Will Ferrell movie. The Superbowl ads alone were worth the price of admission, so I’m amazed this one didn’t appeal to people more. Is Ferrell’s star power fading? People might be getting tired of the same old formula over and over again, but, then again, I wouldn’t rule the ex-SNL star out yet. This may just be one of those weird flukes.
The Other Boleyn Girl, starring Scarlett Johansson and Natalie Portman as two scheming sisters trying to produce a male heir for King Henry VIII, will earn approximately $8.1 million this weekend, not bad considering that the movie is a period piece and only opened on 1,166 theater. Penelope, about a pig-faced Christina Ricci, earned $1 million on weekend, which means it’s pretty much dead on arrival. Considering I have yet to see a preview for the film, I’m not surprised.
No Country for Old Men also earned a million dollars as it pushed back up to 2,000 screens, riding it’s post Best Picture Oscar win. I would have contributed to that amount had I not received it on DVD last night.
The Friday box office results for the February 15-17 weekend (or for the February 14 to February 18 Valentine’s Day to President’s Day weekend) are here, and they imply a pretty impressive turnout for several new and returning films.
The Hayden Christensen-starring sci-fi thriller Jumper benefited from a lack of action films and a slick-looking premise to win Friday, after finishing in a “near dead heat” with Step Up 2 the Streets on Thursday. Jumper earned $8.2 million on Friday, bringing its two-day cume to $14.84.
Step Up 2 the Streets earned $6.25 million, The Spiderwick Chronicles $4.75 million and Definitely, Maybe only $2.9 million, for a disappointing fifth place finish. On the other hand, last week’s winner Fool’s Gold earned $3.9 million.
Here are the five day predications from Slashfilm:
Wow. I didn’t see this one coming.
Proving once again that you can’t keep audience members with no taste down, Meet the Spartans stood up to an invading empire of other films and earned $6.5 million on Friday, January 25, 2008, to beat out both Rambo and Cloverfield. Steve Mason over at SlashFilm predicts the new Rambo movie – which features Sylvestor Stallone in his latest attempt to salvage a dying career – will end up winning the weekend… But, what the Hell?
Meet the Spartans looks God awful and likely is even worse, as it is just the latest in a series of terrible spoof movies such as Date Movie and Epic Movie. Are there people who actually like these films? The comedy is inane, and when you can’t even fill out a two-minute preview with funny moments, you know you’re in store for some pain. So how did Meet the Spartans manage to make $6.5 million on Friday? I have no clue.
Rambo, which received only a 34% fresh rating at Rotten Tomatoes, opened on Friday to approximately $6 million. I thought for sure this one would win the weekend, with not much other competition out there other than Cloverfield. I guess violent action movies really are dead, which is a real shame.
The other real shocker is Cloverfield, however. Everyone knew the movie would fall hard, as last week’s numbers were inflated by a huge fanboy rush to see it opening weekend, but could anyone have predicted a 68% freefall? The J.J. Abrams monster movie earned only $4.5 million for the weekend.
The Diane Lane thriller Untraceable opened to $3.5 million on Friday and How She Move managed to open up outside the Top Ten with approximately $1 million.
Cloverfield, the J.J. Abrams-produced monster movie, earned $41 million over the three-day weekend, according to box office estimates. With Martin Luther King, Jr. Day tomorrow and many of the film’s target demographic free, the movie is set to make a fair amount of money on Monday, too.
The movie only costs $35 million to make (I’ve heard some reports that say $25 million), and combined with the $41 million three-day take means:
Congrats to Cloverfield for once again showing Hollywood that you don’t need to spend $150 million to make big action movies.
Cloverfield, easily the most anticipated film of early 2008, did not disappoint on Friday, January 18th, as it earned a whopping $16.7 million on Friday. Other Friday estimates have it at $18.25, and I have to figure the disparity between the figures relates to the Thursday-night midnight showings.
UPDATED: Here are the final box office weekend estimates for Cloverfield.
Either way, the Friday grosses put Cloverfield in a position to earn approximately $45-$52 million over the weekend, an astounding feat considering that January is usually a month reserved for expanding Oscar-worthy films and the dreck studios want to dump. I haven’t seen Cloverfield yet (UPDATED: read my Cloverfield movie review), but it’s actually receiving pretty decent reviews – decent enough for a monster movie, anyway. The handheld camera approach is getting a bit of criticism, but it sounds like the movie entertains nonetheless.
The $16-$18 million Friday gross for Cloverfield puts the J.J. Abrams movie in a nearly guaranteed position to set box office records for the most earned over a three-day weekend in January. On top of that, don’t forget that Martin Luther King, Jr. Day is on Monday, which means that the movie is also poised to break records for the MLK holiday weekend. I have trouble considering it a holiday weekend since I have to work on Monday, but that’s another story.
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