We Predicted 8 Summer Movies Would Flop. Here’s What Actually Happened

Back in early May, I predicted 8 movies that would flop this summer. While I know I’m never wrong, my girlfriend would argue otherwise, so for the sake of transparency I decided to take a look back at these eight films to see where they’ve ended up.

Note that in my original prediction, I used a loose definition of the word flop: “some of these movies will probably be profitable, but will make considerably less money than expected and be considered underachievers.”

Hot Pursuit

This one was a no-brainer: Hot Pursuit looked terrible and, slotted in between Avengers: Age of Ultron and Mad Max: Fury Road, New Line Cinema was practically sacrificing it for the sake of all humanity. The poorly reviewed movie earned $34 million in the U.S. and only $45 million worldwide, against a budget of $63 million.

Mad Max: Fury Road

This one is a success or failure depending on how you look at it, but I’ll thankfully acknowledge that Mad Max: Fury Road is not an outright flop. The movie is a blast and shockingly received some of the best reviews of the summer, and those reviews appeared to help push it more mainstream than I was expecting it to go.

But here’s the rub: Fury Road had a budget of $150 million (or more) and earned just that in the United States. Worldwide it has earned $373 million. Those are good numbers, but not enough to make it profitable. On the positive side: the movie should thrive on home video, and its positive reception may lead to a sequel anyway.


This movie, which is really just an extended episode of the HBO television show, was only going to appeal to the small number of fans of the show, and the box office results support that notion. The movie cost $62 million to make but earned only $32 million in the U.S. and $44 million worldwide.

Insidious Chapter 3

Even at time of writing, I knew Insidious Chapter 3 wouldn’t flop… I simply said it would make a lot less money. And it did, earning “only” $119 million worldwide, a significant drop from the $161 million worldwide gross the second movie made. Still, with a budget of only $30 million, this movie wasn’t a flop.

Terminator: Genisys

Anyone who had seen the trailers knew this was a stinker waiting to happen, and boy was it a stinker (it was also the worst movie of the summer). The action flick earned only $88 million domestically, but with Arnold’s involvement it did okay oversees, raking in a total of $353 million worldwide (so far). Against a $150 million budget, that’s not enough.

However, as of writing, it just exploded in China, earning $26 million in its opening day. Will it be enough to save the franchise? Time will tell, but it’s hard to imagine Paramount continuing the franchise as is given the reception it received.

Ironically, the numbers for this movie are very similar to those of Mad Max: Fury Road, a movie perceived by the general public as a success. This is a good example of how the box office has a subjective element to it.


Pan was moved to the fall of 2015, where it will still likely flop.

Fantastic Four

This $175-million, highly publicized disaster is projected to only make $50 million in the U.S. and $110-million worldwide. The less said about this movie the better, but financials aside, Fox has done immeasurable harm to this franchise that, in the right hands, could be a huge money maker.

Ted 2

As expected, demand for a sequel to the box office hit Ted wasn’t there–the comedy earned $81 million in the U.S. and $173 million worldwide, but with a budget of $120 million, it’s likely the last time we’ll see this foul-mouthed teddy bear on the big screen.

Other notable summer flops

  • Tomorrowland – earned $204 million worldwide against a budget of $225 million
  • Aloha – earned $24 million worldwide against a budget of $63 million
  • The Man from U.N.C.L.E. – has earned a disappointing $26 million domestically so far, but is just beginning to roll out overseas. Too bad, because this movie is excellent.

Numbers courtesy of BoxOffice.com

By Erik Samdahl
Related categories: Action Movies, Box Office, Comedies, Featured, Top 10 Movie Lists